Effects of a winter forage crop rotation on CO2 fluxes at a managed grassland

Temperate grasslands have the potential to sequester carbon, helping to mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The ability of grasslands to absorb CO2 is influenced by site elevation, soil type, management practices, climate and climatic variability. There is a need for long-term observations and field experiments to quantify the effects of the key drivers of management and climate variability. This paper presents over 4 years of eddy covariance measurements of CO2 flux over a managed temperate grassland site in south-east Ireland. For the first 2 years the entire study area was under grass. During the second 2 years a winter forage crop was grown over part of the site. The site was found to have a net uptake of CO2 during all years. However, the magnitude of the CO2 uptake varied considerably from year to year, with a maximum net uptake of 1.32 kg CO2 m−2 in 2004, a year with no winter forage crop. Net uptakes were much lower in the 2 years of mixed grass and kale cultivation, but detailed analysis of the measurement footprint and statistical comparisons showed that this was not due to the introduction of the forage rotation. For a short period following sowing of the forage crop, daytime CO2 uptake was less than that of the area under grass, but over subsequent months daytime CO2 uptake of the kale areas recovered strongly and exceeded that of the grass areas. The net effect over the year following kale planting is close to CO2-neutral

Short duration rainfall extremes in Ireland: influence of climatic variability

A widely-noted change in the North Atlantic circulation in the 1970s affected the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of rainfall over Ireland. To examine if this was accompanied by a change on short duration precipitation extremes, multi-decadal time series from the second half of the twentieth century of thirteen hourly precipitation stations in Ireland have been analysed for the occurrence of extreme values over several durations of up to 24 h. Strong evidence was found for a change since the late 1970s in short duration rainfall depths, particularly in the west of the country. Precipitation depth-duration-frequency analyses over two sub-periods showed that at several locations, storm event magnitudes which corresponded to a 30 year return period before 1975 had a return period close to 10 years in the post-1975 period. The widespread increase in spring and autumn rainfall and the local increases in the frequencies and magnitudes of severe rainfalls have implications for engineering hydrology, flood risk analysis and water resources management. The necessity of using up-to-date data to derive design storm magnitudes is stressed, due to the possible influence of underlying climatic shifts. Furthermore, as non-stationarity has been demonstrated, the use of long timeseries extending beyond thirty years into the past will result in underestimation of storm intensities in many areas

Quantification of phosphorus loss from soil to water.

End of Project ReportThe methods, results and discussion of the project are in five separate sections, 4.1) Phosphorus (P) export from agricultural grassland with overland flow and drainage water (Johnstown Castle); 4.2) Phosphorus export from farm in Dripsey catchment, Co. Cork (NMP); 4.3) Hydrometeorological aspects of farm in Dripsey Catchment (NMP); 4.4) Phosphorus desorption from Irish soils; 4.5) National phosphorus model. Most of the field and laboratory studies were carried out at Johnstown Castle, at UCC and the field site in the Dripsey catchment. The main aim of the project was to quantify the loss of P from soil to water where point source contributions from farmyards were not high. This involved the construction of hydrologically isolated field sites where the quantity of overland flow and the P concentrations for different runoff events from the fields could be measured. In addition, 90 soil samples representative of Irish soils were collected and analysed for the different factors influencing soil adsorption and desorption of P. These results, in addition to catchment data, were used as a first attempt at developing a model that could be used to help predict P loss from soil to water at a catchment scale. The study in the Dripsey was on a farm where water flow and P levels at two points in a stream were measured. The hydrometeorology at this site was also studied. At Johnstown Castle, three overland flow sites, of the order of one hectare each, and one subsurface flow site were studied for P loss to water.Environmental Protection Agency

Pathways for nutrient loss to water with emphasis on phosphorus

Teagasc wishes to acknowledge the support of the Environmental Research Technological Development and Innovation (ERTDI) Programme under the Productive Sector Operational Programme which was financed by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan 2000-2006.End of project reportThe main objective of this project was to study phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land under a range of conditions in Ireland, to quantify the main factors influencing losses and make recommendations on ways to reduce these losses. This report is a synthesis of the main conclusions and recommendations from the results of the studies. The final reports from the individual sub-projects in this project are available from the EPA (www.epa.ie).Environmental Protection Agenc

Medieval Irish Chronicles Reveal Persistent Volcanic Forcing of Severe Winter Cold Events, 431–1649 CE

Explosive volcanism resulting in stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol is a major driver of regional to global climatic variability on interannual and longer timescales. However, much of our knowledge of the climatic impact of volcanism derives from the limited number of eruptions that have occurred in the modern period during which meteorological instrumental records are available. We present a uniquely long historical record of severe short-term cold events from Irish chronicles, 431–1649 CE, and test the association between cold event occurrence and explosive volcanism. Thirty eight (79%) of 48 volcanic events identified in the sulfate deposition record of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice-core correspond to 37 (54%) of 69 cold events in this 1219 year period. We show this association to be statistically significant at the 99.7% confidence level, revealing both the consistency of response to explosive volcanism for Ireland's climatically sensitive Northeast Atlantic location and the large proportional contribution of volcanism to historic cold event frequencies here. Our results expose, moreover, the extent to which volcanism has impacted winter-season climate for the region, and can help to further resolve the complex spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere winter-season cooling versus warming after major eruptions.Earth and Planetary Science

Global parameterization and validation of a two-leaf light use efficiency model for predicting gross primary production across FLUXNET sites:TL-LUE Parameterization and Validation

Light use efficiency (LUE) models are widely used to simulate gross primary production (GPP). However, the treatment of the plant canopy as a big leaf by these models can introduce large uncertainties in simulated GPP. Recently, a two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) model was developed to simulate GPP separately for sunlit and shaded leaves and has been shown to outperform the big-leaf MOD17 model at six FLUX sites in China. In this study we investigated the performance of the TL-LUE model for a wider range of biomes. For this we optimized the parameters and tested the TL-LUE model using data from 98 FLUXNET sites which are distributed across the globe. The results showed that the TL-LUE model performed in general better than the MOD17 model in simulating 8 day GPP. Optimized maximum light use efficiency of shaded leaves (εmsh) was 2.63 to 4.59 times that of sunlit leaves (εmsu). Generally, the relationships of εmsh and εmsu with εmax were well described by linear equations, indicating the existence of general patterns across biomes. GPP simulated by the TL-LUE model was much less sensitive to biases in the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) input than the MOD17 model. The results of this study suggest that the proposed TL-LUE model has the potential for simulating regional and global GPP of terrestrial ecosystems, and it is more robust with regard to usual biases in input data than existing approaches which neglect the bimodal within-canopy distribution of PAR

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability